Will Bitcoin Be Able To Break Above $8,500?

Crypto Daily Market Commentary - 02.10.2019

After yesterday’s run-up of BTC, which double-peaked at $8,500, the crypto markets have remained fairly calm for the last 24 hours with a minor retracement of up to -5% for the top 10 coins. Bitcoin is down -2.17% and trades currently around $8,250. The biggest loser in the top 10 is Bitcoin SV, which lost 5.25% in value. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies lost USD 5 billion and is currently at $219 billion.

Bitcoin continues to lose dominance and sits currently at 67.7%. Whether this could be an indicator for another alt season remains to be seen. The general sentiment in the crypto community is, however, that it is unlikely that we will experience a massive surge in the value of altcoins, as it was the case at the end of 2017, but that only select altcoins will over-appreciate when compared to bitcoin. The rationale behind this argument is that investors have become savvier. On the other hand, one might argue, is that the power of FOMO (fear of missing out) should not be underestimated once cryptocurrencies, and altcoins in particular, start surging in the double digits, percentage-wise.

Speaking of a surge in altcoins, it is no news that the SEC has been a cracking down on unregistered ICOs. Two days ago, the SEC ordered EOS.IO software developer Block.one to pay a $24 million dollar fine. Given that Block.one raised more than $4 billion through a year-long token sale, $24 million dollars is just a drop in the ocean when compared to the total raise.

Bitcoin [BTC]

Having a look at the weekly chart, we see that BTC is forming a classical bull flag and is trending in a descending channel outlined by the purple lines. Bull flags usually happen when an asset enters a long phase of consolidation after a vertical, almost parabolic rise, as we’ve seen it in the case of bitcoin from the beginning of this year until the last week of June. In the long-term, bitcoin traders expect a break to the upside with higher highs, but in the medium to short-term, we might experience a further decline. Levels of support are around $7,500, which held very strong at the end of May until early June, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at around $7,300. Currently, BTC is supported by the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $7,900, but it is unclear how long that support can hold.

After bitcoin crashed on the 24^th of September, it fell through the 200 EMA on the hourly chart, which has now become new resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in over-sold territory, right below 30. Volumes and volatility continue to be low, which is an indicator that a bigger move is ahead – potentially to the downside.

In the last two days, bitcoin’s price surged from a low of $7,750 to $8,500, marking almost a 10% increase. Bitcoin retested $8,500 twice, and after a failed breakout the bulls got exhausted and the bears took over, forcing BTC to go lower. BTC trades currently around $8,250. On the hourly chart, the 200 EMA has become a line of resistance, whereas the 50 EMA acts as short-term support. How long the 50 EMA can support BTC’s current price, remains to be seen.

Ethereum [ETH]

In the last two days, ETH has climbed up from $165 to $185, and trades currently around $175. Now that it has fallen below the 200 EMA on the hourly chart, it might act as resistance for ETH on its way up. ETH as well as most major altcoins are currently highly correlated with bitcoin’s prive movements, which is why it is likely for ETH to follow bitcoin’s next major move. ETH’s next resistances are $180, $186, and $190. If it breaks below current levels, next levels of support are located at $165, $158, $152, and $150.

Top Movers

The top gainer of the day is Zilliqa [ZIL] with +12.79. After Zilliqa had dropped from weekly high of over $0.0060 to $0.0050, it was only a matter of time until the price pulled back. Zillqa trades currently at $0.0058.

The top losers of the day are Nash Exchange [NEX] with -11.12%, Bitcoin Diamond [BCD] with -8.86%, and Algorand [ALGO] with -8.20%. According to Decrypt, Algorand is “the latest hyped blockchain project to crash and burn this year.” Whether ALGO will be able to climb back up, remains to be seen.

News of the Day

• Bitcoin Volatility By Time Period – Forbes Digital Assets
• Forbes Digital Assets Interview With Liquefy CEO, Adrian Lai – Forbes Digital Assets
• Facebook And Mark Zuckerberg’s Worst Nightmare Is Coming True – Forbes
• Could Google Be About To Break Bitcoin? – Forbes

Forbes Digital Assets (ForbesDA) seeks to provide objective market commentary and investment insights. The data and research we use is provided by Tritaurian Resources, Incorporated which is a subsidiary of a Tritaurian Holdings, Incorporated and an affiliate of Tritaurian Capital, Incorporated which is a registered broker dealer. As always, investors should seek additional information when considering the risks and investment merits of crypto assets. This document does not contain all the information needed to make an investment decision, including but not limited to, the risks and costs and should be used for informational purposes only.